Friday, March 31, 2006

March Stats..

increased from 54% returning visitors to 61%.

Month of Feb

Top Referrer: ccexplore 15
Visitor Breakdown: 61% returning 39% new
Total Visits: 287

top 5 keywords
1. Nick Christie (actually spelled Christy, but glade you got here!)
2. singerly poker - That tournament is tomorrow, hit me up if your interested.
3. taoofpoker - I think you are looking for the good dr... or maybe the book.
4. chances two people get dealt pocker - Im assuming you mean pocket pairs?.. dont remember... but you have a 5% chance of being dealt a pocket pair..
5. Billirikas, Steve - he is Steve MrSmokey1 on PokerStars

Thursday, March 30, 2006

I am a little late pimping this, but then again if you are reading my blog you probably have read this elsewhere... Fantasy Baseball league, draft is tonight, we have 9 still looking for more... here is who is in now...

Johnny Flopboot

Best of luck to all who have signed up, if you havent contact Donkeypuncher or someone else in the league ASAP.

Wednesday, March 29, 2006

Just cleared the $20+2 level, stack is at $378.4 right now, onto Level 3. I am $182 away from my goal of $560, almost there...

not much to post about in these tournaments, I ran the table in two tournaments in a row. The first one I laid low for a little while catching nothing but junk cards. Notices two things, 1) Person to seats to my left would make a 1/2 pot bet on any type of draw; 2) person two seats to my right was very very very tight, hardly called with anything but premium hands. Finally caught some cards, won a few decent pots and realized my third observation, person directly to my right would call down with anything, I am talking calling pot sized bets to the river with Ace high, then sometimes even calling them after the river. After the two other people at the table who I didn't have much of a read on got knocked out I used what I learned about the rest of the players are dominated the table. I made fishy to my right pay every pot we were in together, I bluffed mr tight pants, and I check raised 1/2 better. I got to the final two with a 3-1 chip advantage and easily won the hu match. The next tournament, I caught an unbelievable run of good cards, AK,AK,KK,AQ,JJ,99 within about 15 hands. I used these cards (and the fact that I was raising almost every 1/3rd hand) to build a huge chip stack. Had a great fold of a flush/straight draw in a 3 way pot when I put someone on a set, then a full house after the board paired. Turned out they had quads, but my read was right.

Tonight I played in 8 SnGs total and finished:
1st - 3
2nd - 1
3rd - 0
4th - 1
5th - 2
6th - 1

Moving on up to the $30+3 level, hopefully I can continue to play with my A game.

Monday, March 27, 2006

40 SnGs down, who knows how many left to go. Current challenge bankroll is $285. Here is a recap of how I have done in thus far:

40 SnG

1st - 12
2nd - 10
3rd - 5
4th - 5
5th - 4
6th - 4

I am at the $20+2 level now, and have done this at that level:
1st - 2
2nd - 3
3rd - 2
4th - 0
5th - 1
6th - 0

Only $375 to go to get to my goal of $560, and $45 to get to level 3.

Bankroll is up to about $275 now.. Almost to level 3. Had a couple bad tournaments in a row, and found that it is much more difficult to play $20 tournaments 2 at a time then it is to play $5 tournaments 2 at a time. Do not have my notes on me now, but tonight I will post a more updated post about how I went from $120-$275. Needless to say, I am way ahead of my schedule for getting to $560, so maybe just maybe I will be able to raise my goal a bit and try to get to the $1000+100 tournament, we shall see. I am really excited about this because I think I am ready to step up to the main stage and start playing with the big boys. Who knows this could just be a temporary flash of light and next week I could start being a donkey again!

Regardless, I will enjoy it while it lasts.

Saturday, March 25, 2006

Sometimes it just doesnt matter

No matter how good you are playing there are bound to be times where you are just plain old unlucky. I have ran into a handfull of them in my last 10 tournaments. Won two out of the first three at the $10+1 level, then I ran into a series of unfortiniate events.

event 1/
dealt 22 in BB
4 callers to me, I check
Flop comes 10-2-10
Checks to me, I pot-bet
Guy in first position raises, folds to me.
I think a bit, then push my chips in the pot.
He calls and shows 10-j
Turn is a 5
River is a 5
Ouch, I guess that is what I get for putting my chips in the middle with an easy to suckout on hand.

event 2/
3 players left im dealt JJ on button
Raise 3BB, Big blind calls
flop comes J-Q-2 rainbow
I bet pot, he raises.
I push my chips in the middle, he calls with AK
turn is a 10
and river doesnt bring me a boat or quads.
Ouch again

event 3/
Early in tournament, dealt AK
person to my left min raises, I re-raise, he calls
After his min-raise I knew he had suited connectors, because that was his min-raising hand
Flop comes
He bets, I raise he calls
turn comes Ac
He bets, I raise all in
He calls 3h4h
river comes 8h
Ouch again

So after these my tournament bankroll is $121, time to relax a bit and recoup my losses tomorrow.

Level One Complete

Played in 21 SnGs since starting the challenge, here are the results...

1st - 6
2nd - 7
3rd - 1
4th - 4
5th - 1
6th - 2

Time to move to the $10+1 tabels. I am moving faster then expected, since I planned on being on level 1 for 5-6 weeks and here I am done in the first week. Not really on a hot streak either, so hopefully that is a good sign, I know I wont be able to clear the future levels as quick as I cleared level 1 but now I have +5 weeks for variance!! The SnG bankroll stands at $133.50, $140 to go to finish level 2, and $426.50 to go to get to my goal for this challenge.

More reports later.

Friday, March 24, 2006

Three more SnG down today.
1st - 2
4th - 1

Nothing big happening in those tourny's really to talk about, except I think I am taking my game to the next level. I am starting to be able to read players a bit better. I started keeping notes on actions they take, and within a hand or two I have been able to capitalize on them. One example, I noticed a guy folded after making a min bet on a big pot, I think it was like 10 into a 140, he then got raised and folded. A few hands later, same thing, this time I was on the button and in the hand. It got folded/called around to me. I made a pot size raise the chips got pushed into my stack. I think I did this two or three times to him in this tournament alone. I noticed another guy making 2/3rds pot bets anytime it was checked around on the first pass. Raised him and gathered the chips again. Also noticed a guy who would always call if he raised the pot preflop and didnt hit it, however he would raise if he hit it. Then another guy who would never call/bet/raise enless he had at least top pair. These guy's were easy to spot and it was easy to take their money. Usually I can spot these types of actions and take advantage of them without notes, but this time I wrote their name down so next time I see them I do not have to wait to spot their mistakes.

Up to $87.50, 22.50 more to move up to the $10+1 SnG's, and $462.50 to hit my goal...

wish me luck :)

Wednesday, March 22, 2006

Got in 10 SnG's tonight, here is the recap

1st - 1
2nd - 4
3rd - 1
4th - 1
5th - 1
6th - 2

Overall, +$7 for the night, only $488 to go to get to my goal of $550!!

Out of this round of 10 SnG's I hit my target of 4 2nd place finishes, but missed my 1st place target by 1. I know that my estimates where a little on the "wishfull" side, but I think I can come close. If I can go 20 weeks at this pace, I should be able to make my goal because I only estimated 10 SnG's a week and I think I will surpase that. Twenty weeks of poker at this pace is a lot, so wish me luck!

I am going to take tripjax $55 6 Max SnG challenge..

In all reality, I really think (know) I am a lot stronger in tournament play then I am in ring games. I would like to be playing MTT more often, just do not have the time. I think I could probably swing 5-10 SnG's during the week, and a few more during the weekend, so it seems like a logical choice. I know the big score isnt here, but if I grind this out for a while I can use the proceeds to enter into a nice tournament in AC.

So I am going to modify the challenge a little bit. I want to turn the the 55 into $560+ by September. My goal (for now) is to playing n the 2006 borgata open in September 2006 with the proceeds from this challenge. The minimum event is a $500+$60 NL, so thats what I need to take aim at. I can use my SnG to get into a big tournament. Chances of this happening? It depends. If stick to this goal, and work at it, I can do it. If I do what I typically do, see good gains then donk it off at the NL tables it wont.

So good luck to me :=)

If I play 5 Sng a week and finish like:
1st - 1
2nd - 2
3-6th - 2
then I would be following this schedule

week1 - $55
week2 - $66.50
week3 - $78
week4 - $89.5
week5 - $101
week6 - $112.50

week7 - $135.50
week8 - $158.50
week9 - $181.50
week10 - $204.50
week11 - $227.50

week12 - $273.50
week13 - $319.50
week14 - $319.50
week15 - $365.50
week16 - $411.50
week17 - $457.50
week18 - $549.50
week19 - $595.50

So it would take almost 20 weeks of consistently good poker (not going to happen). I know there will be loosing streaks, and winning streaks and I need to account for them. There is about 25 weeks left until the Borgata poker open. So lets bump that up to 10 Sng a week... Giving me ample time to complete this challenge, and time to have weeks where I got 0-5, or 1-4 (hopefully not too many).

Tuesday, March 21, 2006

I am a huge fan of reading poker books. Even if you don't agree with all the concepts that a particular book presents, I feel you still gain knowledge just reading about the concepts. The main problem I have with poker books is it is tough not to repeat a lot of the same concepts because when writing a book you can not assume domain knowledge. I have read Harrington on Holdem v1/v2, Theory of Poker by Skalansky, Holdem Poker by Skalansky, Caro's Book of Tells, and Phil Gordons Little Green Book. All in all, my favorite have been Harrington's books. Absolute must for beginners and more experienced players. Now I am looking to expand my collection by 1 or 2 books. I am looking for specific subject books this time, not general holdem or poker books. I want to get 1) online poker book, 2) game management book. The reason I choose these is that I am looking to hone my practical skills, and feel that I can get enough "concepts" through blogging, practice, and re-reading my existing books. Any suggestions, specific to these two categories?

And yes, I know I should own Super System...

Monday, March 20, 2006

Time for some pimpage...

Looking for free money to prove that you are the best poker player around? Click on the above image and follow the directions, you will be on your way..

All In Preflop

Most people who have been playing poker for a while would strongly suggest against going all in before the flop. Even if you hold AA and get called off by AK, there are times when QJ10 flops and you are done. Do you really want to risk your entire tournament in this situation? I've been thinking about this move and have made up my mind on how I feel about moving all in preflop. Moving all in preflop takes the skill out of your game. If you push all in and get called, you are now leaving the result of the hand to 100% luck. THIS IS BAD. If you the best player at your table, why give someone else a chance to beat you without having to outplay you? Even if you are not the best player at the table, why let someone take your money away from you without outplaying you? Also, when you loose money you always want to learn something. You know that sick feeling you get when you make a bad move, know its a bad move, but make it anyway, and loose. Yes you do. That sick feeling occurs so that you do not make that mistake again. That sick feeling occurs to remind you, "hey idiot don't chase here, you will loose money." What can you possibly learn from moving all in with AA, getting called by KK and seeing a board of k442J hit? Absolutely nothing. You will learn, I was ahead preflop. I was behind and didnt catch up. Now I am sitting on the rail. Why did I do that? Ok, I lied you can learn something from this move... don't repeat it...

Ok, now that I am done ranting about how bad a move All In preflop is, what do you do when you are put in a situation where someone else does it, and you KNOW that you have them beat?

Example one/
Someone moves all in, You hold AA.
They have you covered. Of course you need to call here...

Example two/
Someone moves all in, another person calls their all in, a third person moves all in over top? It costs all your chips to call here, and you hold AA.
Of course you have to call, but doesnt this situation suck?? Would you consider folding here? What if you were on the bubble? I can not fold in this situation, but I would be curious to get feedback as to what everyone else would do here? My feelings are, I have the best hand, I really really don't like this situation, but I have the best hand. I don't like putting my entire tournament up to luck, and I don't like going all in against 3 other people, the odds just say that I will loose. Maybe it is the right choice to fold the best hand here?

It has been my expierence that when three people are all in preflop you usually have AK/AQ, AA/KK/QQ/JJ, 66/77/88/99/1010

So assuming you are the forth guy sitting with AA, you are probably facing
1st guy - AK/AQ
2nd guy - KK/QQ/JJ
3rd guy - 66/77/88/99/1010

If this is the case, I would have the say the 3rd guy has the highest chance of sucking out... and things only get worse if the AK/AQ are suited...

So my basic question is, what do you do in this situation? Can you fold AA preflop here?

Monday, March 13, 2006

What no bonus?!?

Got an email from PartPoker asking me to come back and play with them, and to entice me they deposited $20 in my account. Bingo, free money! Not going to bite and deposit more so I am sufficiently funded, just going to SnG the $20 until I either have a decent bankroll to play with or I am busted. So far I have played 5 6$ SnG with 2 second place finishes, current bankroll is $27.39... Played in a very nice one tonight where the top 3 players pushed chips around for 30 minutes before I busted the lone fish left. This guy was catching flushes to bust people all night, and had a 3-1 chip advantage on me going to the final 3... Needless to say, the best catch of the night cost him all his chips. I don't usually post hand histories, but this one is too good to not post...

***** Hand History for Game 3735784787 *****

0/0 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL)
(Tournament 20996797) - Mon Mar 13 20:53:44 EST 2006

Table Table 96863 (Real Money) -- Seat 6 is the button

Total number of players : 3

Seat 1: Maverick670 (2050)

Seat 2: NickChristy1 (4420)

Seat 6: SingleTree23 (5530)

Maverick670 posts small blind (100)

NickChristy1 posts big blind (200)

** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to NickChristy1 [ Ah, Qh ]

SingleTree23 calls (200)

Maverick670 calls (100)

NickChristy1 raises (600) to 800

SingleTree23 calls (600)

Maverick670 folds.

** Dealing Flop ** : [ Td, Kh, Jh ]

NickChristy1 checks.

SingleTree23 bets (1278)

NickChristy1 calls (1278)

** Dealing Turn ** : [ Tc ]

NickChristy1 bets (2342)

NickChristy1 is all-In.

SingleTree23 calls (2342)

** Dealing River ** : [ Th ]

Creating Main Pot with $9040 with NickChristy1

** Summary **

Main Pot: 9040 |

Board: [ Td Kh Jh Tc Th ]

Maverick670 balance 1850, lost 200 (folded)

NickChristy1 balance 9040, bet 4420, collected 9040, net +4620 [ Ah Qh ] [ Royal Flush -- Ah,Kh,Qh,Jh,Th ]

SingleTree23 balance 1110, lost 4420 [ Qd Qc ] [ a full house, Tens full of queens -- Qd,Qc,Td,Tc,Th ]

Mr fishy actually had me going into the hand,with QdQc.... I guess he thought his two pair was good when he put his money in,

I mean he did have a straight draw and a full house draw... too bad that when he hit

his full house I hit my first ever royal flush. I didn't even realize I hit it,

I thought I was knocked out on a horrible beat, when the chips came sliding to me,

even then it took me a second to realize I just hit the royal.. I guess it is something

that happens so infrequently that you do not actually count it as an out.

Despite that I still finished second, lost a lot of my chips to runner-runner two pair, then doubled him up again to a caught flush... I will take the +$6 overall considering how little of a margin I am actually working with here. Wish me luck in building this bankroll. Ideally, I would like to get it to around $150+ so I can play some three-five table tournaments at $6, and build it from there. Too bad I wasn't playing in a cash game at the time, or I might have gotten a nice little bonus for my royal flush... oh well, you really can't complain when you take out a boat with a royal flush... Have I mentioned yet that I had a royal flush?

Thursday, March 09, 2006

Making Reads

The more and more I played the more I become convinced that the difference between an intermediate poker player and a good poker player is their ability to consistently make good reads. In poker there are some rules that you can follow. You can make a play based only on odds. You can fold because your hand does not qualify as a good starting hand. You can raise because you hands falls into a category where it is generally accepted to raise. These are pretty robotic plays that we can program a bot to do. We could sit here for days and list hard rules that we should follow. We could then go play poker making no decisions on our own, only using those rules that we outlined. This would make us a winning poker player. This would not make us a good poker player. How can we say we are a good poker player when all we are doing is following rules that we read in someone's book, or from someone's blog? We are simply following semantics.

Now lets add another level to this game. Let's start making decisions on our own. Let's use these rules as a guideline, but drift from these rules when we feel necessary. Directly off the bat, we will make less money then we had in the past. The reason for this is that we will be making the wrong decision sometimes when before we had made the right decision. Over time, our winnings will begin to increase. They will increase because we will have gained experience at the tables and we will begin to make the correct decisions based more on our experience and less on the "guidelines" that we set forward. We will start to develop an instinct for the game. It's that gut feeling that you get when the bottom card from the flop pairs on the river. It's that call you made with top pair weak kicker because you couldn't figure out what your opponent had and ended up busting his bluff.

This instinct develops, but you can't describe it. As we get more experience and better we start to develop ways to think through these decisions. We know longer rely on an instinct, but our ability to actually read what our opponent has. We start to develop our own rules from various situations, and end up throwing our original list away. We may still raise 5xBB UTG with AhAc, but not because it was on our list, because we have found that when we raise 3x we are likely to get too many callers, when we raise 10x we are likely to get no callers. We may still fold when we are getting 3-1 odds on a hand we are only 5-1 to make, but not because the math tells us it is not profitable in the long run to make this call, because we have found out that it is not profitable to make this call. Usually these situations don't change much. We still make a lot of the plays that we would have made in the past, because when we developed these rules we piggybacked off of others experience. They developed these rules the same way we will. We just cut the chase and used their knowledge to improve our game.

There are situations that change. We start to make calls where we would usually fold. We start to win hands with Middle Pair when we would have folded before. We start to win hands when we re-bluff someone, when before we would have folded. The cumulative effect of these hands is the delta between a mediocre poker player and a good poker player. What made Stu Unger so good? It wasn't that he knew how to calculate pot odds, it was that he could look into his opponents soul and find the correct move.

Tuesday, March 07, 2006

Freerolls are always fun

I have to admit, I like freerolls. You have some of the craziest hands you will ever see happening there. The players are horrible, but its not just 1 or 2 or 10 horrible players, you have to go against a whole army. Usually you can get into the money with a little bit of patients and a couple lucky hands (by lucky I mean you were ahead when you got your money in, behind after he sucked out on the turn and ahead again after the river or similiar...). I played in Noble's $100 freeroll finishing 40th paid out 30, which sucked but it was a good experience. Things I learned...

1) A bad player will call of his chip stack instead of raising all in.
2) A bad player will put all his chips at risk randomly for no reason
3) A bad player will talk trash to you after they get put out on a hand where they made a bad move which enabled you to make a questionable move to win the pot

there is more, but too much to post.

Here were some interesting hands I was involved in early..

The Dreaded Aces (by dreaded I mean when you get delt them early on in a freeroll and know you will have to put all your money in the pot preflop to defend them)...

I am the NPR.... in the hand, the one with aces...

Really not much to discuss here,
Some raised to 200 preflop with 25 suited
the guy to my right reraised all in with 88
and I called

Flop was paired with two clubs and an 8
Turn was junk
and an Ace on the river to save me...

Afterwards the guy with the 8s went on just got knocked out tilt in the chat window, and preceded to tell me how lucky i was...

A few hands later, with a large chipstack I get into this situation... this is the more interesting hand...

UTG calls
Second to act calls
I call (Js9s)
person to my right calls
person two seats to my right calls
person to the right of him moves all in for $690
person to his right calls
SB folds
BB calls
fold,fold,fold to me
pot is 2270 to me, 650 to call
3.5-1 preflop odds to call suited connectors, and I have about 3600 chips so the call cost 1/6 of my chips...
ok, so normally I will fold this hand, but how can I get away from this hand in a freeroll in this situation?
I call

Only guy not all in besides me moves all in for 1025 chips
Before he did this I thought this had to be his move regardless of what he had..
I also now have a pot of 3945 needing a call of 1025
my odds have gotten better, at 3.8...-1
my odds in the hand are... (not knowing the other hands).... about 5-1...
the odds say fold, but if i call I will have a huge chip stack and I am really not risking a whole lot if I loose (about 1/2 of my chips at this point very early on so I have time to make them up)
This is a very very questionable call, but I make it anyway, because again this is a freeroll and the players are horrible so they really could be holding anything..
Turn brings a 7d
River 3s

and I am one lucky sob

This causes the guy with 99 to go on mega just got knocked out tilt, calling me everything under the sun in the chat room (lucky SOB, horrible poker player, ask any pro they fold there, etc etc etc)

I just smile and play table bully for a while, ignoring the fact that his all in with 99 was probably worse of a move then my call.. It would be interesting to see what the odds of winning where after the flop in that hand....

(pause while I google an online calculator)


99- 38.26
J9 - 28.02
33 - 15.21
88 - 16.96

Flop of

99- 7.68
J9 - 25.12 (i was actually right in my call based on the pot odds and my odds of winning)
33 - 0.12
88 - 62.39

99- 7.5 tie
J9 - 67.50
33 - 0
88 - 25

very interesting hand

That helped support my upcomming streak of 39s,48s,K2s,104s that I got following that.. guess I upset the poker gods...

Got down to final 5 tables, had 2800 chips with blinds of 150/300 in BB
Had K6off
2 callers
flop of
I moved all in, one person called with
and the turn produced Ace of hearts to end my tourny...

Ok Klopzi, you have waited long enough, time for your reward for being the first person to ask about the lack of continuation bet...

This entire post is dedicated to you...

Here are some sorta-random posts that everyone should drop what they are doing and read...

Stages of a Poker Blogger
Car Dealerships Computer
Big Score

Also I am sure he would greatly appreciate it if you check out his affiliate links...
Full Tilt Poker
Pacific Poker
Titan Poker

And last but not least, lets read his blog everyday so we can track his vitals...
Klopzi's Vitals 2006

* Winnings: $135.13
* Bankroll (curr.): $1469.74
* Bankroll (goal): $5000.00
* Days Played: 52
* Winning Days: 31
* Lbs. to lose: 54 lbs.

If we all continue to click here and encourage him we can hopefully push him +3530.26!

Good luck Klopzi

Monday, March 06, 2006

It's shocking when someone passes away unexpectedly. It is even more shocking when that person is 44 years old and a former athlete. I think I can speak for all people who grew up watching baseball in the 80's and 90's, Kirby Puckett will be missed.

Friday, March 03, 2006

As soon as I hit publish on the last post I get this hand...

4 callers to me
I have KK and raise 250
2 of the original callers call
Flop comes Jc10c7s
First to act bets 50, second raised to 150
pot is 950 to me..and I have 1900 chips..
I need to re-raise here just tricky on how much
First bet was probably a feeler bet, second guy could have a straight/flush draw or top pair.. anything more I am behind but I doubt he stayed in with J10 or J7, maybe he has a set but if that is the case oh well...
If I pot-raise for 900 I am now commited to this pot, this is the exact turning point I talked about earlier... I raise all in...
First better folds, second guy calls and turns over QcKc
Turn is a 5h
River is a ... You guessed it... 5c

Im out, two tournies on FTP and two bad beats early....

btw... he did have 17 outs twice... 37% chance to win with a 2800 pot needing to put 1900 in... so he was behind...

level three starting...
2100 chips
m of 28
didnt play a hand all last level

seventh hand... hammer time.. rivered a 2 on an all in after a 7 hit the flop... plus 900
ninth hand... gave 400 back when my AK lost to trip 8s, I had the guy all in preflop with K8...

finally gave in and deposited some $$ over at full tilt tonight. If you see me around come play username nchristy. I played in a sat. and was busted at the end of the first round when my set of 10s lost to a 4 flush on the river, ehh not a good start at full tilt. I'm in a 10+1 multi in about 5 minutes, so far about 350+ so I will keep everyone informed... wont be live blogging as much as semi-live updates maybe every couple rounds...

Being Pot committed

Learning how to act when being pot committed is a huge step for a newbie. I can not count how many times I have seen a person call a big bet, leaving themselves with a very minute amount of chips only to fold to a small bet in the next betting round. This is a huge mistake. Repeat, this is a huge mistake. The first thing to understand is when are you pot committed? Like most things in poker, there is no exact answer to this question. Rule of thumb, if by calling a bet you are giving yourself odds to call off the rest of your chips on the next betting round, you are pot committed. Sounds simple, here is an example...

You hold AhKh with 2,000 chips.
Blinds are 25/50.
You open with a raise to 200 chips, and get one caller.

Flop comes
Pot contains $475.

You open with a continuation bet of $200 chips
villain raises you to $750.
The pot now contains $1425 and it cost you $550 to call you have 1600 chips.
You are getting almost 3-1 odds to call here.
You put him on a set/two pair or maybe a straight + flush draw.
You figure in this situation he will have a set/two pair 60% of the time, which gives you 8 outs (9 outs, but don't forget to account for the full house that gives you a flush).
He will have a straight/flush draw 25% of the time, which makes you a 87% favorite.
He will have AA/KK 5% of the time, giving you 9 outs.
He is bluffing 10% of the time making you a 90% favorite.
Based on those assumptions you will be a 90% favorite 35% of the time, and be a 20% underdog 65% of the time...
This means you will win about 41.5% of the time, or 2.5-1 odds of winning.
Based on your assumptions you have the odds to call a $550 raise here, but should you just call? If you call the raise you will have 1050 chips left with a pot of $2175. Ask yourself, if you call and he puts you all in, is there a way you can fold? Go through worst case scenario's...
Assume you call here and the turn brings a 3c
The board reads 4h7dQh3c and he puts you all in.
The pot contains $3225, it will cost you $1050 to call. That is 3-1 odds to call. Assuming he just hit his straight or has two pair or a set (something that you can not beat with an Ace or King on the river). This gives you 9 outs (~4.2-1). So yes, you can fold to that bet so you are not pot committed.

Now, lets tweak that same situation...
Assume on the turn brings an As. You have top pair/top kicker. Now you might have more then 9 outs.
You think there was a 60% chance he hit his straight (leaving you with 9 outs)
You think there was a 10% chance he has two pair (leaving you with 14 outs)
You think there was a 10% chance he has a set (leaving you with 11 outs)
You think there was a 10% chance he is bluffing or you are a favorite (giving you about 30 outs)
Overall you have 4.5+ 1.4 + 1.1 + 3 = 10 outs and you are 3.7-1, again you can still fold.

Now, lets tweak that same situation one more time...
Assume before the flop there was 3 callers, not one. After the flop there was one other caller along with you.. The pot contains $4325, and assume he only bets $500 after the turn (when it is 3 handed) and you have a caller in front of you...

The pot is $5325 and you have $1050. It cost you $500 to call, with a worse case scenario of 9 outs. You are getting over 10-1 on your call and you are about 5-1 to win. You have to at least call in this situation. If you call can you fold to an all in bet on the river if you miss? Assume the pot is $6825 and you missed your flush, can you fold here, can you call off the rest of your chips here? The odds say that you have to call, but there is a 90% that you are out of the tournament if you call. You are pot committed. How did you get in this situation? You have put yourself in a bad situation by making an incorrect move somewhere along the line. Somewhere in this sequence you should have raised all in or folded. That point is a very very very critical point in a poker hand. I call in the point of no return. It is a point in the hand where you must make up your decision for the rest of the hand. You must decide if I call this bet I am in this hand until the end. If you know that is the situation and you still want to call, why just call? Why not just push your chips in the middle of the pot and put the pressure on your opponent to make a decision? Suppose he was bluffing, or suppose he had a weaker hand? He will probably fold, if he does you just eliminated the chance that he sucks out on you and you take down a decent pot.

Ok, I know that was a lot of information for one post, but the bottom line is:
In most significant pots there is a key decision you will have to make that will determine if you stay in the hand the rest of the way. If you decide that you are in the hand for the long run, it is often better to push all your chips in the center and put the pressure on your opponent.

Feel free to discuss...

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