Tuesday, February 28, 2006
Last Month Stats
Switched from 48% returning to 54% returning visitors.
Month of Feb
Top Referrer: Poker4peace 13
Visitor Breakdown: 54% returning 46% new
Total Visits: 230
top 5 keywords
1. ny giants vs. indy colts 2006 top keyword 2 months in a row???
2. what are the chances of flopping a flush futurewsopchamp .84% (1 out of 121)
3. nick christy thats me!!
4. wsop+trip+reports - don't have any of these yet, but Dr Pauly can sure help..
5. maryland+north+east+maryland+poker+fire - someone looking for me?
Monday, February 27, 2006
This one seems logical to most of us who have been playing for a while, but not too logical for beginners. Often we become so wrapped up in what we are holding we forget we actually have to have the best hand, not just a good hand. Some common examples, you are holding suited AK and hit your flush. This is a good hand. This hand can be beat. Watch out for a paired board. If the board pairs you could be in trouble. I know it is tough to lay down the nut flush, but it can be done, and should be down in certain situations... Lets look at this hand in more detail
You raise 3x big blind in mid position. Vilian is directly to your left and calls the bet. The pot is now $375.
You check, villain pot bets. You being a fish decide to call. This isn't a horrible call however because you have as many as 15 outs (32%) if you opponent only has top pair. Top two pair or a set drops you to 9 outs (20%), so you are probably about 25% or better to win the hand. You are getting 2-1 on your money and if you hit your flush your implied odds will probably give you enough value to win. I wouldn't make this call, but you did so lets move on...
You check, villain bets 1/2 pot. This is where your eyes need to open wide and examine the situation. A couple things happened here
1) Your opponents hand value probably just changed..
Top pair just became top trips
Top two pair just became a full house
A set just became a full hour, or unlikely but possible, quads
2) Your opponent bet less then he did last round.
You have to decide what his change in betting meant. Did he just improve drastically to where he doesn't care if you chase your flush? Was he betting a flush/straight draw on the first round and was scared by your call? Basically is he bluffing? You should examine what your opponent has done in the past. Does he value bet? A value bet is when he gives you great odds to call when he has the winning hand, inducing your calls and winning more of your money. Does he often bet out straight/flush draws?
You have a tough decision to make now. You incorrectly called on the flop, putting yourself in a bad spot. The pot is now 1738, and it cost you 562 to call. You are getting about 3.125-1 odds to call here. If you opponent has two pair, these are enough odds to call. If your opponent has trips, these are enough odds to call. If your opponent has a full house you should run. What does he have? Well, it is impossible to tell for sure based on the information you have, this is where a raise on the flop would have come in handy. Let's assume that you are still a fish, so you call. There is another key ingredient missing here which we will look at later..
You just hit your flush. Since you called to this point you must call/raise any bet here, because you have already put him on two pair, set, flush draw, straight draw. But don't go moaning when he rolls over 10-8 and grabs your chips.
Now lets examine the hand played a tiny bit differently
Preflop your actions are the same. You correctly raised the pot, getting heads up with a good starting hand. After the flop we need to make some corrections. I do not have a problem with the check, although you can gain some information with a bet here. If you bet and get raised it is safe to assume your opponent is holding more then a flush/straight draw, and probably has more then top pair. However, if you check and he checks back at you, you are getting a free card to chase your flush. Here is the real adjustment, if you check and he pot bets. You now have a tough decision to make. As I said earlier, I would fold, but you wont learn anything from folding so let's decide we are in this hand. Do not call here. Raise him. Put the pressure on him. He could pot bet with top pair, he could pot bet with a flush/straight draw, or he could pot bet with top two pair or a set. If he has top two pair or a set he will probably raise right back at you and you can fold. If he doesn't raise back at you and simply calls, watch his next action. Assume he simply calls. After the board pairs you must make a decision. You must decide how strong his hand is. If you think its beatable you can not check. Again, if you think he does not have a full house, do not check. Bet 1/3-1/4 of the pot here. This is begging for him to raise with a full house. If he only calls you are not loosing a ton by your bet and you have all kinds of flags going up. In fact, if he does not fold you can put the brakes on because he is either slow playing his full house or he is stupid and calling with a very very very beatable hand. If he raises you, you must seriously think about getting away now. Assume he just calls. Now your flush card hits. You are in a real pickle though. Everything he has done to this point screams full house or trips. Which is it? If it is trips you should be able to get his chips at this point. If it is a full house you must not give him your chips. This is a tough decision. If you have the chips to play with, I would value bet again to see how he reacts. If you bet 1/4-1/3 of the pot and he has a full house he is likely to put you all in. Hopefully you can fold in this situation. If he calls 99.99999% of the time he has called down with trips or two pair or a smaller flush.
Ok that is a lot to take in for a newbie... but there is also more information in this situation
1) This is a great situational example of how position can effect how you play in a hand (I will examine this in another post)
2) I never once mentioned how many chips you held. I did this for a reason. Consider that a test. While reading this did you think to yourself, how many chips do I have? If you didn't, you are possibly hitting information overload in this situation, and you should study it over and over again tweaking a variable here and there. If you are short stacked, or your opponent is short stacked this whole situation changes. If you have a ton of chips, this changes. If you are about average, this situation changes. There are a lot of variables in this situation to play around with. This will lead into my next post about a very very common mistake that I see newbies make, and that is reaction/recognition of either you or your opponent being pot committed.
I promise I am working on a poker related post, maybe tonight... Things have been crazy the last week or two so I have not been playing much poker. When I don't play poker, I typically don't come up with things to post. This week has been different, I have thought up a few topics to write some stuff on, just have not had to time to finish them yet. The moral of the story is that I will be posting something of value soon. In the mean time, go read these guys.
Wednesday, February 22, 2006
Inspired by DuggleBogey's you might be a donkey if.. I have created, you might be a new poker blogger if.l..
You dont know who these guys are
You have less then
You've never come across a picture on another persons blog that you didnt consider work appropriate
You think you will make some decent money off of AdSense/Affiliate ads
You don't make money off of AdSense/Affiliate ads
You have yet to recieve your first comment
You have no idea who/what/where G-Vegas is
You have never heard of Bash at the Boathouse.
Ok so that was kind of lame, let me know what you think, if it goes over well I will try to come up with something better and do it again.. if it doesnt, then it will be a one time thing that no-one else will ever know about...
Tuesday, February 21, 2006
Monday, February 20, 2006
Congrats to Ashley for winning Miss Howard County last night. She has worked hard and really deserves it. June 28th-July 1st in Hagerstown, MD she will take her final shot at winning Miss MD.
Sunday, February 19, 2006
Ace on the River
My apologizes to Barry Greenstein for using his title. When an ace hits on the river bad things happen. If you hold a strong ace and have taken it to the river with nothing else and your ace hits you are likely in trouble. My thoughts are that a lot of people (myself included) get over-confident when that ace spikes. You have either been checking down, or calling (hopefully with odds) so you have been in a position where you were probably behind the entire hand. Then your fortunes change, that pretty ace hits the felt. Inside you are joyful, you feel like you just hit your miracle out. This causes you to become confident in your hand. Beware, do not get blinded by your confidence. What could your opponent hold right now? Is he even more happy then you when the ace hit, knowing that he probably is going to get your money now. Beware for two pairs, slow played straights, slow played flushes, slow played sets. There are only two situations where you win here, 1) he had a pair, 2) he had nothing. Was he betting the whole way down? Did you make incorrect plays to put yourself in a position to hit that ace? If he had top pair before the ace hit he should have been betting enough down to the river for you to fold here. If he was on a draw maybe he missed it and you are in good position now. You really need to be careful in this situation and really take your time to examine what type of situation you are in. All to often, top pair top kicker (ace kicker) will get all your chips here. What about a hammer that hit two pair and slow played (the reason I just got knocked out of a MTT)? I am not saying that you need to fold in this position, but I am cautioning you to look at why you are in this position and ask yourself if that ace helped as much as you think it did. You will be staring at the board in shock if you don't.
Wednesday, February 15, 2006
It didnt take long, ESPN and Bluff Mag have combined to create Fantasy Poker. Win and you get a trip to All In camp. I guess I will have to sign up just to test out the waters, but it smells bad...
Shuffle Up and Deal!
Following your favorite poker pros has just gotten a little more interesting.
Welcome to the NEW ESPN/Bluff Magazine Fantasy Poker Challenge--your chance to sit down with your favorite players and not go broke! Choose the players that will do the best over the course of 13 tournaments (spread throughout six months) and you could be heading to Australia for Howard Lederer and Annie Duke's Fantasy Poker Camp! Don't miss out on this FREE opportunity to group your friends, relatives, co-workers, or even enemies amongst each other to see who knows the most about the poker circuit and it's unbelievably talented players. Need to learn more about the poker world? Check out Bluff magazine for all the poker insight you will need.
How to Play
Fantasy Poker Challenge is easy to play. Create your entry and then select a team of seven poker players to lead you to the final table. Remeber that you must keep your team under the salary cap in order to earn points. Each tournament you will have one "All-In" player. This player will earn your team two times the points during that tournament, so make sure you choose wisely. In addition to that, there are also double point tournaments where your team will earn double the points towards your final total. The entry with the highest number of points will be our grand prize winner! For a more detailed breakdown, visit our How to Play section.
Tuesday, February 14, 2006
Caution this post contains no poker content, and contains a blatten plea for pity
I do not usually ask much of my readers. But I am reaching out for support here. Anyone who knows me knows that I am huge Baltimore Raven fan. Living outside of Baltimore, I get my news from the Baltimore sun. They employee a sports reporter by the name of Mike Preston. He is full of crap. He constantly publishes false reports, and stirs stories up to get his name in the press. He makes up stories. He continually quotes "un-named" sources to back his stories. I usually ignore it. I can ignore it and go on with life. What I can not ignore is the fact that he is the face of the ravens in the press. NFL network, ESPN, Sporting news all contact him for inside information on the Ravens. This is bad for Baltimore because he feeds them BS and it gets reported as fact. I usually sit quietly and don't make a fuss about it because that is not who I am. He finally went to far. His latest report (horribly written by the way) brings Ray Lewis and his faith to the Baltimore Ravens in question. You may have heard that Ray wants a trade, this is directly from Mike Prestons article. I do not know for fact that this is not true, but I find it very hard to believe (at least the way Preston is reporting it). Preston hasn't addresses it anywhere but burred inside of his article. Heck, it took two days for the national media to pick up on it. Now he is being quoted on ESPN and MSNBC. I have had enough. I do not want the guy fired, but I do want something written on this. I want an explanation from the Sun. I want Preston to address it. I want another Reporter to address it. I want something other than an "un-named" source". When Miguel Tejada demanded a trade the sun had 2-3 stories a day on it. Dozens of reporters nation wide were covering the story. When TO wouldn't come to Baltimore, the sun had 2-3 stories a day on it. Dozens of reporters nation wide were covering the story.... But now Ray Lewis... Ray Lewis is bigger then Miguel Tejada... Ray Lewis is bigger then TO... Ray Lewis is possibly one of the best football players ever... Ray Lewis is a Super Bowl MVP... Ray Lewis is a Trillion Time Defensive MVP... Ray Lewis is huge, but no stories except from Mike Preston??? I find that hard to believe... The point of this post is to ask for help. I would like everyone who wants to help me to write a short email to the sun. Just ask for answers. You can quote me if you like. I do not know exactly who to contact regarding this, but here is a list of email addresses. If you don't want to write a letter link this rant to your blog. I know we can get something done, and I am asking for help
Thanks In advance
I think we all should stand in line to wash Phil's car for him. How do you forget about a check for $47,000? I guess when you have millions it is just chump change..
Friday, February 10, 2006
Thanks duggle bogey for the awesome banner!!!
I've been a link dropper recently, but I keep reading things that I need to put up here...
From StudioGlyphic (via AlCantHang)....
Seeking potential bone marrow donors (Filipino, 18-61)
Thursday, February 09, 2006
I know I am a little late joining the craze on this one, but has anyone else been watching the high-stakes poker on GSN? This is really cool. Usually a table full of pro's and maybe 1 or 2 millionaire armatures. The amount of money exchanging hands is obscene. One hand in particular, Daniel Negreanu pulled out 2 $500k stacks of cash and raised Phil Gordon $1mil. Phil was on a flush draw, ended up calling and winning the hand. I am sure this show will loose its sex appeal after the initial series and everyone becomes numb to seeing a cash game with over $5mill at the table, but for now it is exciting.
Tuesday, February 07, 2006
A little bit late, but here are my January stats...
Month of Jan
Top Referrer: alcanthang with 17
Visitor Breakdown: 52% new 48% returning
Total Visits: 285
top 5 keywords
ny giants vs indy colts 2006 ---> dont ask how this is my top keyword
http://futurewsopchamp.blogspot.com ---> this one makes sense
what are the chances of flopping a flush ---> .84% (1 out of 121)
future wsop champ ---> thats right
wsop ---> one day...
Thanks Mean Gene for the link to the bad beat story on espn.
I really can not believe this. I do not care how much you piss me off, or how much money I have, I would never muck $15k. Read the story and generate your own opinion. I guess the moral of the story is don't tick off the old lady at the table...
Sunday, February 05, 2006
Close but no cigar
Finished 25th in the live tourny last night. There was about 100 ppl there, with the top prize of just under 5k. Here's how it all ended:
I was in BB with 24k
Blinds were 1k/2k with antes of 200
Two limpers in front of me, one being a short stacked small blind and the other being the guy directly to my left who had about 30k in chips.
dealt 73off so i check my blind
checked to the guy to my left who bets 2k
I had played with him at another table earlier for about 2hours and knew he was going to bet because he always bet when it was checked around to him, so i figured my 7s were probably good. I called like a donkey, although it wouldnt have done any good if i had raised.
I bet 8k commiting myself to the pot if anyone calls (probably should have check-raised here, but again would not have done any good)
guy to my left calls, small blind moves all in for about 5k more, I move all in.
The guy to my left goes into the tank for a little while, at this point I am thinking I must be ahead.
He finally says, "I have to call" and does so
He flips over 74 and I know I am dead, small blind had A10 completely misplaying her hand which cost me a lot (oh well I misplayed my hand from the beginning)
River brings a 7 just so it can kick me while I am down
I guess If I am going to go out I would have wanted it to be to him because despite being not a great player I enjoyed playing with him.
Earlier in the tournament I had the chance to knock him out, but doubled him up instead
Had AQ to his right (funny how I always ended up 1 seat to his right)
Flop was junk,junk,Q rainbow, he was short stacked and moved all in after I made a moderate bet at the flop, I was caught off gaurd by his move not really knowing what he had but I couldnt lay down my hand. He turned over KK and I never improved.
Also got really lucky a few hands later when I got caught with my hands in the cookie jar.
J9 suited on the button, made a rather large raise, when someone else moved all in over the top for another 1200. I knew I was dead, but I had to call because I already had 5k in the pot. The only thing that bothered me was that if I called I was going to loose about 2/3rds of my chips on a misplayed bluff. I called, he showed A10 which is the best I could have hoped for, giving me two live cards... Boy was he mad when two 9s hit the flop. Such is poker.
Thats all for now, catch up more later!
Enjoy the game,
Oh BTW, although I really think this is the steelers year, I am going to stick with my ravens and pick the seahawks for an upset today, 29-20... no I dont think that will be the final score but I have 9-0 in my football pool so I have to be optimistic
Wednesday, February 01, 2006
Live poker has increased a lot around here within the last year. There use to be 1 tournament a month held at the Chesapeake City firehouse (they have even started a point system for a freeroll,even though I've only been to two I am right outside the bubble for that freeroll) and that was it. It would draw 100+ every week, with decent payouts. Other firehouses caught on. Singerly FD started having one. That made it two a month. Now North East FD is having one. All on different dates. So there is a fire house tournament on the first, second, and third Saturday of every month. Nice. Only problem is, until I get settled into my new house (late April) the bankroll can't afford it. Each is about $100, and I have not cashed in one yet. I am on the verge of taking one down, I really am, I just can't break that bubble. In fact, two tournaments ago I finished 4th when they paid the top 3. There is a big one this weekend that I am really tempted to get into. It promises to have 100+ people, with $75 buy in and $50 rebuy at the door. I know the guy who runs it and he runs it well. Here is the question I pose to you my readers:
a) take the chance, cash out $75 from my online account, move back down to .02/.04 levels online, spot the $55 from my personal account, and play my best.
b) ignore the itch. Keep grinding out my online account, and once I am settled in the house and don't feel bad about putting some money to the side for my live play bankroll, then start playing in these tournaments again.
I don't usually give into people who ask to be pimped, but reading humanaut's blog I figured he deserved it.